The news mediocre is awash in the gaiety of polls, but aren’t we all?
The polls themselves use small samples to try to get a handle on the tide of the presidential election. Will it be that smooth talkin’ black dude with the funny name and the razor-tongued old guy with all those teeth, or will it be the pasty white, double-talkin’ old warrior with the creepy smile and the snotty, ignorant, young earth creationist who doesn’t like earmarks for anyone but herself? Ooooh! I’m dying to find out!
It’s the electoral votes that count, not yours and not mine. There typically aren’t enough state polls to get a good handle on the magnitude and direction of change in the electoral college. However, there are mathematical ways to model it. Unfortunately, I don’t know any of those, so I had to make up my own.
The electoral college totals for each candidate are close when the popular vote is extremely close. As the popular vote opens up, the electoral college quickly reaches a tipping point and turns into a runaway.
The following chart shows the calculated electoral votes for McCain and Obama from the week preceding the Democratic National Convention through the week following the Republican National Convention.
The first Obama peak is between 8/20 and 8/21. He reaches approximately 311 electoral votes. One possible scenario allowing Obama to reach 311 electoral votes is shown in the map below.
The candidates are nearly tied going into the Democratic National Convention. In the map below, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia have moved into the McCain column.
The Democratic National Convention begins Obama’s ascension. Yes, Republicans, I’ll play along with your funny ‘messiah’ humour. You guys crack me up!
Obama reaches a peak of approximately 338 electoral votes on August 31, 2008. The map below reflects this rapid change in the electoral count.
Now, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida are all in the Obama column. It will be short lived, however, as McCain will unveil the Palin Gambit, and then start his nominating convention.
McCain now begins his rapid climb from electoral washout to dominance on the map. As shown in the map below, by September 5, 2008, McCain had come back to tie Obama in the electoral college.
In this scenario, which, come November 4, 2008 is quite plausible, the election could come down to who wins New Hampshire or Nevada.
McCain seems to reach a post-convention, Palin Gambit maximum between September 7th and 8th, when he reaches a peak of 291 electoral votes, as shown in the hypothetical map below.
This is the most likely scenario for a McCain blowout in the November 4 contest with Senator Obama.
As the popular vote and the corresponding electoral college vote stand today, a likely scenario for the outcome of the election is represented by the map below.
This will probably be a very close election.
One thing that becomes obvious when looking at these maps is that much of the country’s outcome is set in stone. Dumbfuckistan and Polygamyland will be red. Strangely, though it has been at times part of both Dumbfuckistan and Polygamyland, Colorado might be in play. On the other hand, it might move strongly to McCain as many other traditionally Republican States have recently, after initially showing some interest in Obama.
It seems likely that any interest shown in Obama in Dumbfuckistan was to see if he had a strong back or was a professional basketball player, then, back to the stark white reality of this race-based race.
It’s difficult to tell from the data if Sarah Palin had any impact on the race. She did bring some excitement to the foil-hat, crucifix-carrying, moose-shooting, flagpole-in-the-butt base of the Republican party. They were all going to throw open the doors of their double-wides and vote for McChange anyway. She will help secure Wasilla for McCain. If, as Karl Rove insisted, Wasilla were the second largest city in Alaska (Not even close, Karl!)…well, it still wouldn’t make any difference. Alaska is as Republican as corruption, nepotism, and gay sex scandals.
It seems, as always, that this election will come down to a few States that have just the right mix of hillbillies, welfare losers, snake-handlers, abortionists, unionists, and Diebold voting machines.
Tags: 2008, Biden, bump, democrat, Diebold, electoral college, McCain, Obama, Palin, Palin Gambit, poll, republican, states, swing states, vote
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