Hot Free Press is the only site using State by State data to look at Electoral Vote trends before the State polling data arrives. Sounds magical, no?
It really isn’t magic. It’s a risky, error-ridden model we use to convert the national polls to electoral vote trends.
The margin of error is rather high, but it always is with polling, and even moreso with prognostication.
It does allow one to look a few days into the future.
Here’s the latest hypothetical electoral vote data
The plot still shows the highs of each candidate’s surge, if you will, after their convention. After that, it looks a little like a decaying oscillation. At the end, however, there appears to be a stabilization, with Obama at approximately 279 electoral votes.
The Purple Line of Destiny is the halfway point of the electoral college. Anytime a candidate is obove The Purple Line of Destiny, he or she is doing well.
I don’t know if the sudden uptick on the right side is a real trend or a computational artifact. I will ask my Ouija board and my Magic 8 Ball tonight. More will be revealed.
Below is a hypothetical map of how each State may vote if the calculations used above are correct. The map appears to be plausible.
The only thing that doesn’t match the latest State by State information is Nevada, which is a swing state, and I think is likely to vote McCain/Palin. However, the race is very close there, and with a big urban and union turnout in Las Vegas, Obama could turn the Silver State, and John McCain, blue.
I’m going to take my dog for a swim.
Have a great Friday night!
Tags: Biden, electoral, Magic 8 Ball, McCain, Nevada, Obama, Ouija, Palin, Purple Line of Destiny, state, swing, swing state, trend
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