As we near the end of September, several States are still up for grabs in the presidential election. State polling data is sparse and erratic.
I am obsessed, not with polls, but with polling data, and trying to make sense of what one of my least favorite professors from back in the day would have called ‘idiotic data.’
State polling data is erratic, sporadic, and often at odds with polls taken at or near the same time. It uses small sample sizes and has large margins of error.
Often, the best information one can glean from it is a trend.
The table below–in patriotic, red, white and blue–details some of the trends I’ve calculated from September’s State polling data.
Cool, huh?
These States are very, very close as of today, September 24, 2008. All trends, spreads, and leaders are subject to change overnight as more data becomes available.
It would appear that in Ohio, Senator McCain enjoys a substantial lead as well as a trend in his favor. That would seem to make him the favorite in Ohio.
In Pennsylvania, Senator Obama has the lead and the trend in his favor. That makes him the favorite in Pennsylvania.
Senator Obama also leads in Virginia, though the margin is so small as to be, arguably, insignificant. The trend in Virginia, however, is toward Senator Obama.
Senator McCain enjoys a significant lead in Florida, but the trend is toward Senator Obama.
In Nevada, Senator McCain has a very small lead, and the trend is toward Obama.
I would call Ohio and Florida as likely McCain States, Pennsylvania as likely Obama, and Virginia and Nevada as tossups. However, given the history of Virginia and Nevada, in a race this tight, the intangible edge goes to the historically favored Republicans.
This far out from the election, with the economy in shambles, any prediction based on this idiotic data is no better than guesswork.
The calculations are fun, however, and this obsession keeps me out of the bars.
Tags: Biden, electoral, Florida, McCain, Nevada, Obama, Ohio, Palin, Pennsylvania, trend, Virginia, vote
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