Hmmm…
Well, much has changed since the last time I looked at a handful of swing States. There’s been a crisis, another crisis, Governor Palin said some stupid stuff, Senator Biden said some other stupid stuff, Senator McCain did some stupid stuff, and Senator Obama did his best to stay out of the way while McCain’s campaign self-destructed.
Here’s a look at the trends in a few select swing States:
At this point, the trends in the swing States and the national trends are generally in favor of Senator Obama. What was striking to me was the sharp, sudden change of direction in these States, especially States that had favored McCain and Republicans in general for so many years.
Last week, McCain had leads in Nevada, Florida, and Ohio, and a positive trend in Ohio. This week, all of these States not only have positive trends for Obama, but Senator Obama also has the lead.
And North Carolina? Are you kiddin’ me? Bush won North Carolina in 2000 and 2004, by over 12% each time! Senator Obama leading in North Carolina is a surprising and–to a skeptic like myself–somewhat dubious result right now. Time and more polls will reveal more and do much to convince me that these numbers aren’t complete bullshit.
There’s something about the suddenness of the turnarounds that brings out my inner skeptic, but it times of crisis, people’s minds change quickly.
From the national polling data, which is less interesting to me right now as those polls seem to have reached a temporarily steady state, I did calculate Senator Obama’s current lead, and it’s 4.47%. I calculate Senator Obama at 306 Electoral Votes, but the reality is that he’s on the verge of, if he hasn’t already, going far over that number. Real Clear Politics shows Senator Obama at 353 Electoral Votes.
I’m using very conservative numbers, because in my heart, not only have I looked on a lot of women with lust, I’m also a deeply conservative man.
LOL?
Tags: Biden, Carter, electoral, lust, McCain, Obama, Palin, poll, state, swing, vote
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