It’s been eight days since we last visited the trendy swingers. Some of them swing no more. Hot Free Press is now considering pulling out of Pennsylvania after she fell so strongly for the black guy, but for now, Pennsylvania remains on the pretty table below.
We’ve added Missouri and Colorado. I’ve been fascinated by Colorado for months, always wondering if it held the key to this election. If things tighten up considerably, and they might, Colorado might make or break the election for Senator Obama.
It would be heartening to see Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado break to the Democratic column this November, as it would be a sign of civilization finally creeping back into the west after being unwelcome for so many years.
I can even imagine Arizona turning from red to purple to blue, like a crushed finger, or John McCain’s face when Senator Obama offers to shake his hand.
In the hopeful world in which I live, I can see Montana turning blue, and, as a native son of the Great State of North Dakota, I can see North Dakota becoming more reliably Democratic. It’s one Representative and two Senators are all Democrats. All it would take in Montana or North Dakota is an extended and repeated presence by the candidate to start the ball of political change rolling.
Without further delay, here’s the table of the swing State trends and current standings:
Senator Obama retains his lead in all of the States from last week’s table, though his lead in North Carolina has shrunk. Senator Obama’s trend in North Carolina is still positive, however.
Pennsylvania is turning into a blowout. I doubt that Senator Obama has an actual, solid lead of over 14 points, and it is still imperative for him to maintain a presence and keep interest high because, if nothing else, it will help other Democrats on the ticket. I beg of you, my Pennsylvania friends, take nothing for granted.
One interesting note about Pennsylvania is how clear and marked the trend is. When the Obama and McCain data are plotted with respect to time, it looks like open crocodile jaws, with the data falling neatly along nearly straight, diverging lines. It reminds me a lot of the things I saw my data-fudging labmates create when I was a more active scientist.
Though Pennsylvania may be leaving the list next week, Colorado and Missouri are welcome additions to the family of possibility. By my calculations, Colorado is becoming uncomfortably close. There were polls showing Obama with large leads in that State, and now it has tightened considerably.
Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and North Carolina, from this list of swing States are also home to voter-purging zealots. That is to be expected. If Republicans are going to win these States, they need to remove the voters added by the Democrats, by any means necessary.
But, I digress…
Interestingly, my method has given Obama a statistically insignificant–but politically enormous–lead in Missouri. If Missouri is really in play, and I still need more data to be convinced of that, then Senator McCain is facing a tremendous challenge in this election.
Virginia and North Carolina coming into play was surprising to me, the whole Missouri thing has made me giddy. I’m a hopeful person, but a realist, and I realize there’s a lot of time left before the election, and I’m making calculations with very little data in the case of Missouri.
I do have a lot of national data, however, and the latest estimate is that Senator Barack Obama of Illinois leads Senator John McCain of Arizona by 5.28%. That translates, by my calculations, to between 326 and 357 electoral votes. Real Clear Politics is estimating that Senator Obama would receive 353 electoral votes if the election were held today.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner!
Tags: Biden, electoral, McCain, Obama, Palin, purge, Real Clear Politics, swing state, vote
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