Democrats panic a little too quickly. It’s understandable after having a Presidential election stolen from them in 2000, and having one Swiftboated out from under them in 2004.
This year won’t necessarily be any different, but it also won’t necessarily be the same.
When the polls show McCain gaining slightly, it gets really angsty in the pot-smoke-filled echo chamber the Democratic madcats live in. Although McCain’s supporters use tightening polls to scare Democratic voters, that may actually backfire in that it keeps Obama’s supporters from growing complacent.
Voter complacency is the one thing that could prevent Senator Obama from becoming President Obama.
The other mistake the Democrats make is, year after year, dreaming about the youth vote.
The youth vote is not reliable. It would be the sweet, smooth, creamy icing on the luscious, moist cake if loads of lean, nubile young voters turned out and waited anxiously in line to wrap their slender fingers around the lever, gently pulling it there in the solitude of the voting booth for the very first time.
If they’re anything like me, they’ll want to do it over and over again.
No doubt, some percentage will pull it for McCain.
Rich Lowry apparently pulled it for Sarah Palin.
Mark Foley and Dan Crane would surely laud a high turnout of first-time voters.
By the way, I didn’t leave Gerry Studds out because he was a liberal; I left him out because he has shed the mortal coil.
Anyway, what I was going to update today–before I got distracted by the thought of a line of excited college cheerleaders waiting to vote (for Barack Obama, otherwise it would creep me out)–was the current poll position of my friend Barack Obama.
The table above shows my estimated range for Obama’s lead today, October 17, 2008. As you can see, the lead in the popular vote percentage may seem unpleasantly narrow, but in actuality, that is an enormous lead. Translated to a range of electoral votes, it is even larger.
Senator McCain has his work cut out for him in the next few weeks to cut into this lead, but rest assured, he and his surrogates will do and say absolutely anything to win. Most of what they do and say from here on out will be to discourage and dissuade Obama supporters who will tend to be younger and more optimistic, and thus easier to discourage with negative campaigning.
The Republican base is maniacally reliable.
Their god tells them to vote Republican.
Vote the bible.
Yeah, the fearful, hateful theocrats are going to vote.
Are you?
Tags: Biden, democrat, McCain, Obama, Palin, republican, vote the bible, youth
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